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Everyone knows the feeling. You've saved your rewards points, hoping to enjoy a free flight for your next vacation. It's time to book your trip, and the airline wants how many miles?! Welcome to the world of dynamic pricing.
Why are awards cheaper on some days and more expensive on others? That's the core of a dynamic award pricing model now being used by many airlines.
If you're wondering what dynamic pricing is and how to deal with it when booking award travel, we're covering the key things you should know. While dynamic pricing often prevents you from getting the same value you could in the past in some loyalty programs, there are still some bright spots.
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What Is Dynamic Pricing?
Unlike more “traditional” award pricing models — such as region-based and distance-based with fixed pricing charts — programs using dynamic pricing offer award redemptions with prices that vary alongside those of cash fares. When cash ticket prices are high, expect to see high award costs. When cash fares are low, expect to see inexpensive awards. The cash price and award price may be loosely linked or closely linked, depending on the program.
Related: How Many Miles Do You Need for a Free Flight?
Under dynamic pricing, each program may use different factors when determining award costs, and none of this is clear to members of the program. The key takeaway is that the cash price and award price are correlated.
The upside of dynamic pricing is that loyalty programs using this model often make many more seats or rooms available than traditional programs. In some cases, all seats are available for sale for either cash or miles. Where other programs may return zero results from an award search, with dynamic pricing, you can usually expect to see seats available. The price might not be attractive, but at least you can use miles or points if you want to.
There's no hiding the downside of dynamic award pricing: Awards can cost an astronomical number of points or miles during popular travel times. If you're trying to see family across the country around Christmas, for example, expect to pay through the nose using your airline miles. Conversely, travel during the off-season periods can be quite affordable. This goes back to the fundamental feature of dynamic pricing: Award costs fluctuate with the cost of cash tickets.
Dynamic pricing vs. revenue-based programs
It's important to distinguish between dynamic pricing and revenue-based programs. With a revenue-based program, the cost of award tickets is exactly (or very closely) tied to cash fares. Examples of revenue-based programs include Southwest Rapid Rewards and JetBlue TrueBlue. While you may see slight variation in value for your points, depending on the particular ticket, redemption values tend to stay within a tight range.
Contrast this with a program like United MileagePlus. While award tickets are certainly dynamically priced, there are still ways to find cheaper seats, depending on when you search and book. With dynamic pricing, there is usually a floor and cap for a certain origin and destination.
Over the past decade, increasing numbers of loyalty programs have shifted toward dynamic pricing. Some use fully dynamic pricing, while others have a “chart” that shows the lowest possible pricing (typically shown as “starting at” prices) but allows award prices to fluctuate above this. Some do the reverse and have a cap on award prices in each cabin.
Airlines With Dynamic Pricing
The “Big 3” U.S. airlines that previously offered region-based awards have all moved to dynamic pricing. Unfortunately, the dynamic pricing shift has begun to affect overseas carriers as well. But our focus is what you can expect from the dynamic pricing used by major U.S. airlines and how to best work within the constraints.
Here is a quick list of airline programs that use dynamic pricing:
- American Airlines AAdvantage®
- Delta SkyMiles
- United MileagePlus
- Alaska Airlines MileagePlan
- Air France–KLM Flying Blue
- Air Canada Aeroplan
American Airlines dynamic pricing
In all our experience, American Airlines AAdvantage award pricing varies greatly, depending on the route and the dates you book. You may find a ticket costing 30,000 miles per person one summer, then you book it for just 6,000 miles per person the following summer. Seasonal variation can be high, as well. If you're flying in September and October, expect lower prices; if you're flying mid-summer, be prepared for inflated costs.
Here is an example of an American Airlines route I've searched as part of a larger itinerary. On a Sunday in July, there is an option for a whopping 55,000 miles for the nonstop in economy!
Two days later, that Tuesday, it drops to just 12,000 miles. You save over four times the miles if you can wait two days. If you have to travel on Sunday, however, you are the victim of American Airlines' dynamic pricing.
If you're still asking yourself, “What is dynamic pricing?” this is the very definition of it. The swings can be wild from one day to the next. Imagine paying the 55k price (or even half of it) only to see American Airlines present you with the Sunday price!
Which brings me to the best tool for dealing with American Airlines' dynamic pricing: the award calendar. The calendar shows you each day's cheapest option for flights between your origin and destination. To be clear, the cheap option isn't always a good one, but you can at least hone in on dates that might offer something decent. Here is the award calendar for a month of flights between Chicago O'Hare (ORD) and San Francisco (SFO).
Key takeaways for combating American Airlines dynamic pricing:
- Start searching early and book a decent award, if possible. Awards are fully refundable, so it's best to book something you can live with.
- Routinely check for a better deal. Cancel and rebook if there is.
- Be flexible with your travel plans. American can have wide swings in award prices during peak travel seasons.
- Look for Web Special awards. I've locked in awards with amazing value using Web Specials.
Delta Air Lines dynamic pricing
Delta Air Lines was the first U.S. airline to move to dynamic pricing. SkyMiles forged the path that all the others followed. Delta does dynamic pricing best — or worst, depending on how you look at it.
Delta award prices tend to follow cash prices more closely than the other carriers. For domestic flights, you'll likely get a value within a set range for your miles. It's hard to find outsized value with Delta SkyMiles, unless it's for partner flights. And even for those, devaluations have hurt the currency significantly over the past few years.
Related: The Unofficial Delta SkyMiles Award Chart for Flights From the U.S.
Delta does provide good search functionality for finding the best price for a given origin and destination. Checking the “My dates are flexible” box will take you to a weekly view of award prices.
You can easily expand this to a monthly view. This is how I prefer to search for Delta's awards since the Delta dynamic pricing can be so extreme. Here, I am searching for a flight from Sacramento, California to Burlington, Vermont.
Notice that the award prices vary from 17,000 to 36,500 SkyMiles. Those award prices correspond to $198 and $399, respectively, for the best cash option for each flight. In either case, you're getting around 1.1 cents per SkyMile.
There's not a good way to circumvent Delta's dynamic pricing model on domestic flights. You'll generally find that domestic tickets offer 1.0-1.5 cents per SkyMile redeemed. The best thing you can do is keep tabs on the Delta SkyMiles award deals. This is where you'll likely do a bit better.
Outside of the U.S., things can vary more. Delta's dynamic prices can be wildly high sometimes. Even when award space is available on partner flights, Delta prices awards based on its own dynamic metrics. And Delta is not transparent about which of its own seats it makes available to partners, so trying to book a seat on a Delta flight through partner programs can be frustrating.
Key takeaways for combating Delta Air Lines dynamic pricing:
- Keep tabs on the Delta SkyMiles award deals, at least for domestic prices.
- Use the award calendar search to find the best deals.
United Airlines dynamic pricing
Like American and Delta, United MileagePlus has joined the dynamic pricing party. United's appraoch is similar, with flights around holidays and other peak times costing a lot more. But there are a couple things to note about United.
One key thing I've discovered with United's dynamic pricing is that award prices — at least for certain routes — tend to fall shortly before departure. More so than Delta, United factors in the likelihood of selling the seats on a particular flight. American seems to do this as well, albeit to a lesser extent. Here's what this means: You can often find last-minute United tickets at a decent award rate, while the cash rate is relatively high.
Related: The (Unofficial) United MileagePlus Partner Award Chart
I've managed to find saver award seats just days before departure. As a quick note, an award marked “Saver” is usually at the pricing floor (the lowest possible price) for a given origin and destination. In some cases, awards were actually more expensive when searched months in advance. Close to the travel date, the award price dropped.
United appears more willing to give you a deal close-in when using miles, even if the cash price has climbed. This is one upside to United's dynamic pricing algorithm.
Here is a United route I fly often, searching months ahead of time. This is the standard award price for this route, although you'll see it for 10,000 miles or less occasionally.
And here is the same route within days of departure. Same award price, even though the cash fare is over twice what United charges when booking far in advance:
One thing I love is that United still has a “Saver” space designation. You can easily see this when searching online. Saver space (“X” class in economy and “I” class in business”) is what United makes available to partners. This makes it easy to see when a seat is bookable using miles in another program. And there are some clear reasons why you might want to book through a partner.
I'll reiterate: Saver seats tend to have a pricing floor. If a seat is marked “Saver,” it's often available at the cheapest rate possible — or at least close to it. If the fare isn't a Saver fare, you're paying more than you might otherwise.
Key takeaways for combating United Airlines dynamic pricing
- Check well in advance for “Saver” United award space. If Saver space is available, book it.
- Consider stashing some United miles for close-in trips. You may find a decent rate booking within two weeks of departure.
- Know where you can use partner miles to save on United award flights, and use the Saver space knowledge to aid in finding better award prices.
- If you book a non-Saver rate, check close to departure to see if a better award price is available.
Alaska Airlines dynamic pricing
Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan has joined the dynamic pricing party over the past few years. After departing from a region-based pricing model for Alaska's own flights, the carrier started pricing them by distance, listing “starting at” prices for award flights. This is more or less how the airline has continued its pricing model. Alaska even expanded this to partner flights earlier this year.
Alaska's dynamic pricing is easily observable when searching for domestic award tickets. What's nice is that the award search results always include a price calendar at the top. This makes it easy to find the cheapest date if your plans are flexible.
Flights on a given date may have different prices. Here are three Alaska flights, all between Los Angeles (LAX) and Boise (BOI) on the same day. As you might expect, the award prices reflect the vastly different cash prices that day. If you can book flights at the cheaper end of Alaska's dynamic award prices, you'll likely get the best deal. This is almost always true.
Changing the pricing model opened up more awards on Alaska partners. Previously, if a Saver seat wasn't available on a given partner flight, you couldn't book it with miles. Now, Alaska has multiple pricing buckets for many partner flights. And the prices are dynamic not just for each route but among the partners. This leads to substantially different options on a given day.
Key takeaways for combating Alaska Airlines dynamic pricing
- The price calendar is your friend. Use this to find the cheapest prices, if your plans are flexible.
- Booking one to three months out is often a sweet spot. I've found that Alaska prices drop as the travel date gets closer, then rise again just a few weeks from departure.
- Check out the partner award charts to find the “starting at” prices. Note that Alaska now factors in distance as well.
International carriers with dynamic pricing
In addition to the U.S. carriers that use dynamic pricing, some international airline loyalty programs also use it. Two in particular that we want to highlight are:
I won't go go into detail on these two programs, but just know that they suffer from the same dynamic pricing model as the U.S. carriers we've covered.
Hotel Programs Using Dynamic Pricing
Alongside U.S. airlines, several U.S. hotel loyalty programs have moved to a dynamic pricing model. Hotel dynamic pricing tends to be more closely tied to cash prices, and you'll often find that most redemption options you review all have the same “cents per point” value. However, each hotel program with dynamic pricing works a bit differently.
Hilton Honors
Hilton Honors was the first hotel loyalty program to move toward dynamic pricing. Rather than a fixed chart, awards fall within a pricing range. Over time, this range has expanded for many properties, but Hilton does have a pricing range for its awards. Most Hilton Honors awards will fall between 5,000 and 95,000 points per night. Some specialty accommodations will require up to 150,000 points per night.
These prices are only for base-level rooms. In many cases, a premium room at a Hilton property may require exponentially more points and fall outside the dynamic pricing range.
What's helpful is the award calendar Hilton offers. When you begin your search, select the “My dates are flexible” checkbox after setting sample dates for the number of nights you want. Then, toggle “Use points” on the next screen. You can then see a calendar that looks like the following when you select a given property.
IHG One Rewards
IHG One Rewards is another program that transitioned from a category chart-based system to one with dynamic pricing. Prices usually begin around 10,000 points per night and can be as high as 100,000 points per night. IHG has tied award prices to cash prices rather tightly. You should expect to get 0.6–0.7 cents per point on most stays.
There is also an award calendar that can help you find the cheapest award prices at a given property, but it will only come up if there's no availability on the dates you select. You'll have to click on the “View available dates” link. Here's an example of using the calendar at the InterContinental Chicago Magnificent Mile:
Marriott Bonvoy
Marriott Bonvoy has also moved to dynamic pricing over the past few years. The program moved its category pricing to peak and off-peak pricing, which eventually morphed into dynamic pricing in early 2022. Prices start at less than 5,000 points per night if you use Cash+Points, and awards may exceed 120,000 points per night.
When searching for awards, Marriott presents you with the points price per stay alongside the cash price per night. Thus, you have to do some math to determine the value you're getting from your points.
Like both Hilton and IHG, there is a flexible award calendar for find the cheapest Marriott awards. You can key in flexible dates to find awards for a given month according to a specified stay length.
However, rather than give you the cheapest price per property, you'll still need to click on a given hotel to see the prices. At least in this view, the lowest available price is highlighted. This is the best way to use dynamic pricing to your advantage if you have flexible trip dates.
World of Hyatt — only for Mr. and Mrs. Smith properties
Finally, I want to mention the major shift World of Hyatt has taken with the incorporation of Mr and Mrs Smith properties into the program. Hyatt has long offered a standard award chart that prices hotels by category. Hyatt did move to peak and off-peak pricing, requiring more or fewer points, respectively, for certain dates over the year (although these dates are not published) in various regions.
Not so with Mr and Mrs Smith hotels, however, which were recently added to the award program. Mr and Mrs Smith award rates are directly pegged to cash rates. And the value you get from Hyatt points at Mr. and Mrs. Smith properties is relatively poor.
The move to fully dynamic pricing for Mr and Mrs Smith properties is concerning. Hyatt has been a strong hotel loyalty program, and we hope this pricing doesn't begin to affect Hyatt's other award charts.
Final Thoughts
The trend toward dynamic pricing by several airlines has been unfortunate, to say the least — at least when many airline programs historically used region-based pricing and hotel programs used category-based. It's comforting to know how much an award will cost ahead of time, rather than finding out when you go to book. With dynamic pricing, costs can vary substantially over different dates and even change from week to week when you're searching for an award to book. This is all because award rates are linked to cash prices.
But dynamic pricing has its upside. Many programs have opened up cheaper awards when travel demand is low. And far more seats/rooms are available in programs with dynamic pricing. That said, the pricing model makes traveling over major holidays costly.
Ultimately, it's good to know what dynamic pricing is, how it works, and how to best make use of your points and miles with programs that use this model. We've covered all the major programs using dynamic pricing, so now you should know how to best deal with the dynamic pricing offered by each and how to find the cheapest awards.
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